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Measuring fielding with numbers has always been a difficult task. The most traditional statistic, fielding percentage, is dependent on the whims of official scorers and does not account for a players range, while total plays made per game is a product of the number of balls hit to a fielder.
Accurate numerical evaluations of defense only became possible in 1987, when Stats Inc. began sending observers to every game to record the location and speed of every batted ball.
This play-by-play (P.B.P.) information made it possible to measure fielding ability much more precisely, by comparing the rates that players at the same position fielded various types of balls say soft pop-ups to right-center field or ground-ball smashes down the third-base line. By adding up a fielders performance relative to his peers on every type of play, analysts can produce fairly reliable statistical measures of defense.
After reading this there may be validity to this new measure. Compare and contrast positional players based on range and how they field various balls in play. Interesting.
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All of todays best P.B.P. systems agree that Ramrez is the worst defensive left fielder in baseball, and by a comfortable margin. This holds true even after accounting for the effect of the Green Monster wall in left field.
Manny is at the far end of the as-bad-as-you-can-get-in-the-field spectrum, said Mitchel Lichtman, who designed one highly regarded P.B.P. defensive statistic called ultimate zone rating, and who consulted for the St. Louis Cardinals from 2004 to 2006.
Can this be right? Is he truly that bad? If so how does this affect his value to the team overall? They take a look at this as well.
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At one extreme, the most conservative estimates suggest that Ramrezs outfield play last season, when compared with an average left fielders, cost the Red Sox 13 runs. Thats not good, but not bad enough to make him meaningfully worse than elite corner outfielders like the Angels Vladimir Guerrero, the Yankees Bobby Abreu and the Pirates Jason Bay.
By contrast, Lichtmans system says Ramrez was 32 runs below average last year, which would make him one of the games most overrated and overpaid players. If he was actually that awful, he was no more valuable than the Mariners Ral Ibez, the Blue Jays Reed Johnson or the Angels Juan Rivera.
The truth most likely lies in the middle: the average of the P.B.P. systems results for Ramrez is 15 to 20 runs below average. Thats enough to take a significant bite out of his value. If his hitting begins to deteriorate this season (he turns 35 in May), and his base running remains poor (subtracting another two runs or so), he is likely to be worth about as much in 2007 as Oaklands up-and-coming Nick Swisher. In other words, an All-Star, but not a franchise player, and certainly not worth anywhere near his $20 million salary.
So how can the Sox minimize the "Manny Affect"? Two suggestions: assemble a staff of ground ball pitchers; two move him to DH. Both options don't seem very likely in the scheme of things. Several on the staff get many fly ball outs. Moving Papi to first and shifting Youk to LF won't work well either. Papi is less mobile than Manny.
This is all well and interesting but I am not so sure Manny is the absolute worst out there. He makes his mistakes but for all he does offensively I still say he is worth it.
www.nytimes.com/2007/03/18/sports/baseball/18score.html?em&ex=1174363200&en=bada4d47323de564&ei=5087%0A
